THE 90% NUMBER
China buys roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports — almost all of it shipped through ship-to-ship transfers off Malaysia and relabeled as Malaysian or Omani crude before discharge at independent Chinese refineries known as teapots. The trade settles in yuan and barter, not dollars, which is what makes it sanction-resistant.
THE 25-YEAR PACT
In March 2021, Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation agreement covering oil, infrastructure, banking, and military cooperation, reportedly worth up to $400bn in Chinese investment. Implementation has lagged the headlines — Chinese banks still fear US secondary sanctions — but the political signal was that Iran's eastward pivot is structural, not tactical.
WHY BEIJING NEEDS HORMUZ CALM
Roughly half of China's crude imports transit the Strait of Hormuz — Saudi, Iraqi, Emirati, Kuwaiti, and Iranian barrels all funnel through the same 33km gap. A closure hurts Beijing more than it hurts Washington, which is why China consistently pressures Tehran against escalation it might publicly endorse.
THE SNAPBACK CLOCK
The JCPOA's UN Security Council resolution (2231) contains a snapback mechanism — any original participant can unilaterally restore the pre-2015 sanctions regime, and no veto can stop it. The provision sunsets in October 2025. After that, restoring UN sanctions on Iran requires a fresh resolution, which China or Russia will veto. This is the calendar Tehran is racing.
THE LIMIT OF CHINESE COVER
Beijing's diplomatic support for Tehran has consistently stopped short of military commitment. China brokered the 2023 Saudi–Iran rapprochement precisely because it did not want to choose between Gulf customers. If forced between Iran and Saudi Arabia — its top crude supplier — China's revealed preference is the Saudis.
THE YUAN HEDGE
Iran prices a growing share of its oil sales to China in yuan, deposited in Chinese banks and used to import Chinese goods. This is currency the US Treasury cannot freeze — but it is also currency Iran cannot easily convert into dollars, euros, or anything Tehran's elites actually want to hold abroad. The arrangement keeps Iran solvent in yuan-denominated trade and starved of hard currency simultaneously.