Washington2,000 ships remain stuck in Hormuz.
Bottleneck forces players to choose which ships transit — each approval trades US energy security against the UN’s fertilizer pipeline to famine-risk countries.
Even the best outcome falls far short of the pre-war 130 daily transits, the game shows.
Sources: Ars Technica
THE BOTTLENECK
Hormuz is 33 km wide at its narrowest, but the shipping lanes are just 3 km each — two inbound, two outbound, separated by a 3 km buffer. Roughly 21 million barrels of oil pass through daily, about 21% of global consumption.
WHY IT CAN'T BE BYPASSED
Saudi Arabia built the East-West Pipeline (5 million bbl/day capacity) partly as a Hormuz hedge, and the UAE built the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline. Together they could reroute maybe a third of Gulf exports. The rest has no alternative route.
THE FERTILIZER LINK TO FAMINE
The Gulf produces roughly a fifth of global urea and ammonia exports. When Hormuz closes, the first downstream casualty isn't a Western driver at the pump — it's the next planting season in import-dependent grain economies. Fertilizer shortages translate to yield collapses six to nine months later.
THE TANKER WAR PRECEDENT
From 1984 to 1988, Iran and Iraq attacked over 400 commercial ships in the Gulf. Oil prices spiked briefly but markets adapted — tankers were reflagged under US and Kuwaiti flags and escorted by warships. The lesson planners took: disruption is easier to threaten than to sustain.
WHY THE SIMULATION ALWAYS LOSES
Pre-crisis Hormuz handles ~130 transits a day. Restoring even half that under wartime insurance premiums and mine-clearance constraints takes months. The math of the simulation is the math of the real strait: capacity destroyed in hours rebuilds in seasons.
WHAT MOVES FIRST
Lloyd's of London war-risk premiums — not the mines themselves — are what close a shipping lane. Once premiums spike, commercial vessels reroute regardless of how many mines remain. The financial chokepoint is tighter than the physical one.