LondonUK renewables saved £1.7 billion in gas costs since the Iran war began.
Grid analysis found 21 terawatt hours of UK wind and solar since late February cut gas generation to record lows in Britain.
Gas set electricity prices 25% less often in spring 2026 than in 2022’s Russia-Ukraine spike.
Sources: Carbon Brief
WHY GAS SETS THE PRICE
Most electricity markets use marginal pricing: every generator on the grid gets paid the price bid by the most expensive plant needed to meet demand. In Britain, that marginal plant is almost always a gas turbine — so when gas spikes, the entire wholesale market spikes, even the cheap wind power.
THE PRICE-SETTER STATISTIC
In 2022, gas set the British wholesale electricity price roughly 98% of the time. By spring 2026, that share had fallen meaningfully as wind and solar capacity grew large enough to meet demand without gas during many hours. Each hour gas does not set the price is an hour the grid is insulated from Hormuz risk.
THE NORTH SEA TRANSITION
Britain was a net gas exporter until 2004. North Sea fields are now in terminal decline — production has fallen by roughly two-thirds from its 2000 peak. The UK now imports about half its gas, mostly via Norwegian pipelines and LNG terminals at Milford Haven and the Isle of Grain.
THE TTF BENCHMARK
European gas prices key off the Dutch TTF hub — the Brent of natural gas. TTF spiked from about €20/MWh pre-2021 to over €300/MWh at the 2022 peak, then settled in the €30-50 range. Any Hormuz disruption pushes Qatari LNG cargoes off the Asian-bound flow and into European competition, lifting TTF and dragging UK power prices with it.
WHY WIND IS A SECURITY ASSET
A wind turbine's fuel cost is zero and its supply chain is domestic once built. Every gigawatt-hour of wind generation is a gigawatt-hour the grid does not need to buy from a gas market priced by Gulf geopolitics. Energy security and decarbonization, often framed as competing goals, point the same direction in a gas-importing economy.
THE INTERMITTENCY HEDGE
Critics note wind and solar do not generate on calm nights — true, but irrelevant to the savings figure. The £1.7bn is realized during the hours renewables do generate. As long as those hours displace gas at the margin, the hedge pays out, even if the grid still needs gas backup for windless evenings.