Zaporizhia3 Ukrainians died in drone and artillery attacks within 24 hours of Russia’s ceasefire taking effect.
Trump’s three-day pause, active since May 9, carries no enforcement clause and no monitor — both sides have accused each other of violations.
US envoys are traveling to Moscow with no agreed date for formal talks to resume.
Sources: Al Jazeera Online, Economic Times
WHY CEASEFIRES FAIL
Most ceasefires collapse within weeks. The political scientist Virginia Page Fortna's data on post-1945 conflicts found that ceasefires without monitors, troop separation, or third-party enforcement fail at roughly twice the rate of those with all three. Trump's three-day pause has none of them.
THE LAST-SHOT INCENTIVE
In the hours before a ceasefire, both sides typically escalate to grab terrain that will freeze on the new line. In the hours after, each side has incentive to test whether the other will respond — a probe, a shelling, a drone. If the response is weak, the line moves; if absent, the truce is already dead.
THE KOREAN PRECEDENT
The 1953 Korean armistice is the model of a durable ceasefire — and it took two years of negotiation, a 4 km demilitarized zone, a Military Armistice Commission with both sides represented, and 28,500 US troops still stationed in the South seventy years later. No formal peace treaty was ever signed; the war is technically still ongoing.
WHAT MINSK TAUGHT
The Minsk I (2014) and Minsk II (2015) agreements both produced ceasefires in eastern Ukraine. Both collapsed within weeks of signing. Angela Merkel later admitted Minsk II was used to buy Ukraine time to rearm; Putin cited the same admission as justification for the 2022 invasion. The lesson on both sides: a ceasefire without enforcement is a pause for repositioning.
THE DRONE ASYMMETRY
Modern frontline drones cost a few hundred to a few thousand dollars and are operated by squad-level units, not chains of command. Even when generals order a halt, individual operators with grievances and ammunition can keep firing — and frequently do. Verifying who shot first across a 1,000 km front is effectively impossible.
WHO BENEFITS FROM A SHORT PAUSE
A 72-hour halt favors the side that needs to rotate exhausted units, resupply forward depots, or reposition air defense. It disfavors the side trying to maintain offensive momentum. Russian forces have been on the offensive across most of the front since late 2024; a brief pause helps Ukraine's logistics more than Russia's tempo, which is why analysts read short truces as Ukrainian wins regardless of who proposed them.