BeijingUS officials have asked China to pressure Iran.
China has sought tariff relief, semiconductor concessions, and Taiwan arms limits in the negotiations.
Thursday talks will test whether Xi offers anything concrete on Iran in exchange for trade concessions.
Sources: Bloomberg Business, News18, Yahoo News
WHY CHINA HAS THE PHONE
China buys roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports — almost entirely through 'teapot' independent refineries in Shandong that operate outside the dollar system. No other power can offer or withhold that volume of demand. Washington's leverage on Tehran is sanctions; Beijing's leverage is the bid.
THE 2023 PRECEDENT
In March 2023, China brokered the Saudi-Iran restoration of diplomatic ties — a deal Washington had been unable to deliver after seven years of mediation efforts. Beijing learned that Middle East diplomacy is a low-cost, high-prestige arena where it can outperform the US without spending military capital.
THE THREE ASKS
China wants tariff relief on roughly $370bn of Section 301 goods, removal of export controls on advanced semiconductors and the equipment to make them, and a freeze or reduction in US arms sales to Taiwan. Each touches a different US bureaucracy — USTR, Commerce, State — which is part of why bundled deals are hard.
THE TAIWAN ARMS QUESTION
The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 obligates the US to provide Taiwan with 'arms of a defensive character' — but leaves the volume and type to executive discretion. Every administration since Carter has used arms sales as a dial that can be turned up or down. A summit-era pause would be legal; a permanent halt would require Congress.
WHY IRAN MIGHT NOT LISTEN
Iran's strategic doctrine treats independence from any single patron as foundational — Khomeini's 'neither East nor West' slogan still anchors policy. Beijing can squeeze the oil bid, but cannot dictate nuclear enrichment posture; the IRGC answers to the Supreme Leader, not the refining schedule.
THE SUMMIT ARITHMETIC
Xi has held three in-person summits with Trump across two presidencies. Each ended with handshake commitments — soybean purchases, fentanyl precursor controls, a phase-one trade deal — that partially unwound within a year. The question is whether tradable substance survives the photograph.