THE BOTTLENECK
Hormuz is 33 km wide at its narrowest, but the shipping lanes are just 3 km each — two inbound, two outbound, separated by a 3 km buffer. Roughly 21 million barrels of oil pass through daily, about 21% of global consumption.
THE LEGAL REGIME
Under UNCLOS Article 38, ships have a right of transit passage through international straits — meaning coastal states cannot suspend passage or impose conditions. Iran signed UNCLOS in 1982 but never ratified it, and has long argued Hormuz is governed by its own domestic law, not the convention. A toll regime is the practical expression of that position.
THE INSURANCE LAYER
Ships transiting conflict-adjacent waters need war-risk insurance, priced daily by Lloyd's. A toll regime adds a second cost layer. If combined premiums and tolls exceed the cost of routing around the Cape of Good Hope (adding 10-15 days), tankers reroute — which itself tightens supply.
WHY IT CAN'T BE BYPASSED
Saudi Arabia built the East-West Pipeline (5 million bbl/day capacity) partly as a Hormuz hedge, and the UAE built the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline. Together they could reroute maybe a third of Gulf exports. The rest — including nearly all of Qatari LNG, Kuwaiti and Iraqi crude — has no alternative route.
THE TANKER WAR PRECEDENT
From 1984 to 1988, Iran and Iraq attacked over 400 commercial ships in the Gulf. Oil prices spiked briefly but markets adapted — tankers were reflagged under US and Kuwaiti flags and escorted by warships. The lesson planners took: disruption is easier to threaten than to sustain. A toll is the monetized version of the same leverage.
WHO PAYS, WHO COLLECTS
A toll collected by the IRGC navy — not the Iranian state shipping authority — would route revenue through a sanctioned entity. European refiners face a compliance trilemma: pay and risk OFAC secondary sanctions, refuse and risk seizure, or reroute via the Cape and accept the cost.