SydneySpace data centres face no armed-conflict targeting rules.
Lowy Institute warns the US and China are racing to orbit data centres before international law can determine how to target them.
The institute finds no forum negotiating space-infrastructure targeting rules — a gap it compares to the legal vacuum preceding 2010s armed-drone proliferation.
Sources: Lowy Interpreter
WHY ORBIT IS TEMPTING
Data centres consume ~2% of global electricity and generate enormous waste heat. In orbit, solar power is continuous, cooling is free via radiative heat dump to a 3 Kelvin sky, and there are no zoning boards or water permits to negotiate.
THE DUAL-USE PROBLEM
A satellite carrying AI inference for a defence ministry is military infrastructure. The same hardware running commercial workloads the next hour is civilian. International humanitarian law requires distinguishing combatants from civilians — a distinction that collapses when a single chip serves both in alternating timeslices.
THE OUTER SPACE TREATY GAP
The 1967 Outer Space Treaty bans weapons of mass destruction in orbit and reserves the Moon for peaceful purposes. It says nothing about targeting conventional infrastructure, kinetic ASAT weapons, or cyber operations against satellites. The treaty was drafted before anyone imagined orbital compute.
THE DRONE PRECEDENT
From 2001 to roughly 2013, armed drones proliferated faster than the law governing them. The US conducted strikes in Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia under legal theories its own allies disputed. By the time international consensus formed around proportionality and imminence, the practice was entrenched. Orbital compute is now in the same window.
WHO IS RACING
Beyond the US and China, Lonestar (US) plans lunar data centres, Axiom (US) is building commercial orbital modules, and China's Three-Body Computing Constellation aims for 2,800 satellites with on-orbit AI inference. The launch cadence is set by SpaceX and CASC, not by any treaty body.
THE DEBRIS FEEDBACK
Kessler syndrome describes a cascade where one collision generates debris that triggers more collisions, eventually rendering an orbital shell unusable for generations. A war that targeted orbital data centres in low Earth orbit could deny that altitude band to everyone — including the attacker's GPS, weather, and reconnaissance satellites.